Innovation: The Big Squeeze
| posted by Robert BuckmanIn "The Future of First-Class," Forbes.com writer Shivani Vora lifts a page from my blog in forecasting the future of travel in the air up there. Her thoughtful column dissects the amazing transformation of business class and first-class flight service.
Vora reports that some first-class is going become like service at Five Star hotels.
Meantime, business class will become more like first-class.
The gene at the heart of this class-mutation trend is the coming of big new aircraft like the Airbus A380, which will offer airlines the space to expand high-end services.
Except — and this is a big except — this blossoming of first-class into truly luxurious flight accommodations will happen only at certain top-tier airlines.
Unfortunately, most if not all are foreign carriers.
What's going to happen here with our U.S. carriers?
First, first-class may disappear. That's because business class is shrinking the first-class space. Second, first-class space is being squeezed, big-time, by upgrades and frequent fliers. At most airlines business class will survive as the new first-class.
At one airline business class will be the only class, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal Online. The story says that Virgin Atlantic Airways will begin a new premium transAtlantic service that will cater just to road warriors.
Still, demand for better service to business travelers is overwhelming airlines' ability to satisfy it. So, as the price of private jet service has declined dramatically in the past couple of years, the popularity of air taxis that cater to road warriors has risen.
Air taxis not only are becoming more cost-competitive, but offer more point-to-point options than the big carriers, which are constrained by their "network" service model. Also described as "hub-and-spoke," the weak link in this model is that it requires connections that divert fliers to other cities en route to their ultimate destination.
Where the big airlines can't compete with air taxis is on the grief meter. As Aram Gesar of AirGuide magazine and AirGuideonline.com explains in Vora's article, "You don't have the hassle of checking in and you decide when you want to fly. When you land, you literally walk right out of the airport."
Isn't that a future we'd all like to live in?
Airline Futurist • Miami • rbuckman@amadeus.com • www.amadeus.com
