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2:24 pm | 0 recommendations | 4 comments

Tap Group Smarts

| posted by Michael Taylor

One interpretation of Google's great market success is that it has found a way to tap into and commoditize the collective intelligence of the Internet. Through its use of a page-ranking algorithm, Google has leveraged the total knowledge and expertise of the countless individuals using the Internet. In fact, this magazine has even taken a look at how Google, well, googles itself.

Academics have already demonstrated the power of group intelligence; how groups tend to be right more often than individuals. A classic example of this phenomenon is when Jack Treynor, a former professor of finance, asked a group of students to guess the number of jellybeans in a jar. The group average was 2 percent off the true number, far closer than most of the students.

If groups reach better answers more often be than individuals, does that mean the collective should be consulted in business strategy formulation? Do all members of an organization deserve a say in key decisions? Perhaps "all" is an unrealistic number, but trying to be as inclusive as possible would seem to be a better strategy for success than going it alone. Just ask Michael Eisner about that.

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Recent Comments | 4 Total

October 27, 2004 at 9:37pm

Steve Portigal
Check out http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/index.html - the new book from James Surowiecki of the New Yorker "The Wisdom of Crowds"

October 28, 2004 at 9:49am

marc dugger
We've implemented a 'group opinion' for estimating home values at our website. It's not intended to replace appraisals, but it does work surprisingly well.

October 28, 2004 at 12:33pm

Dave
Google's advantage is in improved contextual accuracy, correct? It builds a consensus that a web page meets a contextual alignment with a search request. This is based upon the web page's content and the links of other web pages to that site. So it aggregates concentrations of contextual relationships. Group intelligence is the human manifestation of that same contextual concentration building. All forms of formal and informal input are observed by individuals who use it to form opinions. Due to the overlap of inputs in personal networks and common training in reasoning, groups tend to gravitate around common conclusions. Can this be called conventional wisdom? I see this as valuable for the same form of directory purposes as Google... eg "the Galaxy Diner has great food", but I would stop there. Most real estate fortunes are made by seeing a value beyond the conventional. It seems to me that most advances in culture, business and the general human condition come from outside of conventional wisdom. What are the applications of Group Intelligence for me on a practical basis and how is that different from market research?

October 29, 2004 at 11:34am

Heath Row
We included Surowiecki's book in the Fast Forward roundup. A great book!