FC NOW: The Fast Company Weblog
October 31, 2005
Report from the Futurists
Futurists who have tired of being relegated to the second string are organizing to advocate for the value of futures studies. Today, for one day only, futurists are reclaiming Wikipedia's "future studies" topic in what they're calling a "one-day raid."
Starting at 9.00 am Australian time on 31 October and working around the world to midnight, Hawaii time, on 31 October: we will expand, explain, augment, and illustrate both academic and applied activities in futures studies all around the world.
Should be interesting.
[Thanks, Wendy!]
Posted by Heath Row at October 31, 2005 9:46 AM | Category: innovation + creativity |
6 Comments
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Perhaps the futurists could benefit from reading Sir Karl Popper's "The Poverty of Historicism".
In the Preface to this work Popper writes:
"I have shown that, for strictly logical reasons, it is impossible for us to predict the future course of history. . . .
The argument is contained in . . . 'Indeterminism in Classical Physics and in Quantum Physics' . . . . A more satisfactory treatment will be found in . . . 'Postscript: After Twenty Years to my Logic of Scientific Discovery'.
The argument may be summed up in five statements, as follows:
1. The course of human history is strongly influenced by the growth of human knowledge. . . .
2. We cannot predict, by rational or scientific methods, the future growth of our scientific knowledge. . . .
3. We cannot, therefore, predict the future course of human history.
4. This means that we must reject the possibility of a theoretical history; that is to say, of a historical social science that would correspond to theoretical physics. There can be no scientific theory of historical development serving as a basis for historical prediction.
5. The fundamental aim of historicist methods . . . is therefore misconceived; and historicism collapses.
The argument does not, of course, refute the possibility of every kind of social prediction . . . [however] if there is such a thing as growing human knowledge, then we cannot anticipate today what we shall know only tomorrow. . . . no scientific predictor - whether a human scientist or a calculating machine - can possibly predict by scientific methods, its own future results.
The argument being purely logical, applies to scientific predictors of any complexity, including 'societies' of interacting predictors. But this means that no society can predict, scientifically, its own future states of knowledge."
Well, here are my two cents: I have a black filing cabinet in my home office. Into it I throw hundred of press clippings on such topics mentioned above. I keep them for three to five years, sometimes longer. Often I go back and re-read them and see if the geniuses who "predict" what was to happen, earn their salaries.
Nope. Off their marks, most of them. Some day, I'll stretch the clips out and do book on them. There will be a lot of red faces in journalism.
Much of the self-styled experts get paid a lot of our money predicting much of what we gobble up as no more than clap-trap that never materializes.
http://journals.aol.com/rogdodger1/fromarizona/
Just want to compliment you on what a great site you have here! Its very impressive and informative. I'll definitely keep returning to see what is new.
I would also like to invite you to have a look at my new website about accelerating development using technology. Its at http://acceleration.bravehost.com/. Please feel free to add links to it, offer your comments on the ideas expressed there and refer friends to it.
Best Regards,
Ashfaq Tunio
Futurism is definitely a difficult field. Recently I read Ray Kurzweil's new book, "The Singularity is Here." Mr. Kurzweil, interviewed here at Fast Company before, is an inventor besides a futurist (speech recognition, scanning technology, OCR). I recommend it to everyone, for his analysis of past biological and technological evolution, even if you disagree with his logical predictions.
Good site. Thank you!!!
Good site. Thank you!!!